Non Obvious Megatrends: How to See What Others Miss and Predict the Future (Non-Obvious Trends Series)

Proving entails seeking out data, stories, and conversations to validate whether a collection of ideas can justifiably be described as a trend.

Gathering is the disciplined act of collecting stories and ideas while taking notes of why they are interesting.

Elevating involves identifying the underlying themes that align a group of ideas to describe a single, bigger concept.

What broad group or demographic do these stories describe? What is the underlying human need or behavior revealed in these stories? What makes these stories interesting? What are they an example of? Haystack Method Step 2: Aggregating articles into possible themes or topics How is the phenomenon the stories describe affecting multiple industries? W

START WITH HUMAN NEEDS. Sometimes focusing on the underlying human emotion in a story or idea can help you see why it matters and how it connects with others. For example, the basic human need for belonging fuels many activities that people engage in online, from sharing their images on social media to joining online communities. RECOGNIZE THE OBVI

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Great trends reflect a moment in time, but that moment is never fleeting, and the basic idea is more elevated. Good trends always focus on the shift in an underlying human behavior or belief. They don’t describe a single interesting story or a hot new product or industry.

SEEK OUT COMMON WORDS. As you review your groups of ideas and stories, look for key words that can reveal the common themes among them. When I was collecting ideas related to entrepreneurship, for example, a word kept coming up that described the growing ecosystem of on-demand services for entrepreneurs: fast. This word helped me bring various piec

FOCUS ON VARIETY. One of the biggest mistakes I have seen people make when curating trends is focusing on stories or examples in a single industry. If a trend is going to describe how business is done or how consumers behave, it should be supported by examples or cases in many industries. WATCH YOUR BIASES. Nothing will cloud your judgment more tha