It’s cutting through the noise, ignoring investor WhatsApp gossip about which startups are “good,” and having the conviction to back the ones that still feel too strange or risky, even if the broader category is already consensus.

In other words: being a non-consensus investor inside consensus.

Are we back to the good old days of actual contrarian thinking? When a16 invested in Airbnb, market analysis suggested the short-term rental market was too niche and regulatory barriers too high. Their willingness to override consensus analysis—precisely the kind that research agents excel at producing—led to one of venture capital's greatest... See more

There are great consensus bets to be made, capital itself becomes the moat for some of these companies, exits may be (are presumed to be) sooner than true venture exits, and you’ll make money off the beta, highly correlated with the growth of the entire category.