May 2024 Newsletter: The Bond Market Is the “Dumb Money” Now
Final Thoughts: Three Pillars Reiterated
I continue to view a three-pillar portfolio as an ideal framework for risk-managed investing.
A classic “60/40” stock and bond portfolio consists of two asset types that both prefer disinflation. Stocks generally prefer disinflationary growth, and bonds generally prefer disinflationary contraction. They’ve
... See moreLyn Alden • July 2024 Newsletter: Rates Insensitivity in the Downcycle
Notably, Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini recently published a paper about “Activist Treasury Issuance” which is their term that refers to the Treasury Department taking unusual actions to offset the Fed’s tightness. Both Miran and Roubini are economics PhDs and worked in various capacities with the Treasury Department in the past.
In the paper,
... See moreLyn Alden • Potential Asset Rotations: Deep Dive Analysis
When looking at U.S. markets, I think there’s a little bit from both of those areas that can be helpful. During periods of fiscal dominance, the general trends are that 1) governments often try to restrict the flow of capital in subtle or overt ways, 2) asset prices are often not as nominally bearish as you might expect since the denominator is
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