Markets, Markets, and Markets

Many investors saw the "death blow" to Amazon coming when the big established retailers started selling online. So while Amazon was born out of an initial appreciation for the growth of the internet, they stayed on top with execution. The ability to execute in an internet-native model vs. the transition big-box retailers were trying (and failing) t... See more

"We help companies build, survive, and scale, but one of the main components of my job is understanding how and when the world is going to change. Our portfolio is a collage of various futures that we believe in, and our capital and expertise are assets to hopefully pull these futures forward."

The final question is whether "TAM dreaming" can translate into dollars and cents in terms of valuation and execution. Forecasts have only one thing in common; they're all wrong. But appreciating directional size for a market can impact the equation.

Early on, big things might start out feeling like a toy. But their ability to extend from one value proposition to the next, and address more and more of a market is the secret sauce you want to dream about. That's where high net dollar retention comes from. Companies that are able to drive usage (more volume of the same thing) or modules (adjacent... See more

The power of large numbers is significant. If you earned $1,000 a day every day, it would take 1,000 days (or just under 3 years) to earn $1M. But it would take 1,000,000 days to earn $1B (over 2,700 years). 

The same can be said of markets. Understanding how big a market really is can be difficult. But the act of attempted futurism can have a clarifying effect on your perspective.

I'm a firm believer that founders are the people who can predict the future. --> "The best way to predict the future is to build it".

Often, companies are underestimated because people believe the market isn't large enough, and the execution will have risks (e.g. Crowdstrike). So how does that translate into the valuation I can pay today? If you have a fundamentally different belief about the size of the market then you believe that the company will be able to address more custom... See more

I use the word arbitrage because we're not talking about different markets in different geographies. We're talking about different markets that exist in different people's minds. If I can fundamentally understand, and believe in, a market more clearly than any other investors then my equation can change in ways that give me an advantage.