You always have to underestimate performance in order to stay sane because we all know that our worst drawdown is ahead

I understood the rationale behind the model and knew that it was sound. I don’t actually do that, but I know people at Goldman Sachs who were beginning to work with those kinds of models. They used what I would characterize as technical models built with fundamental data. I think that’s a fertile place for exploration. So, you acknowledge the possi

and resistance systems? (They’d profit in the fallow times he’s describing). They work very well in the long run with longer parameter sets. I call them channel breakouts or the old Donchian method. Trying to trade these

like it, but again, I’m limited

” said Louis, “you get into the role of trying to write Excel spreadsheets, and then mixing this with that, and at that

They go counter to your human nature. We had an example of that a couple of years ago when interest rates were really low. We had been stopped out of our long bond position. We got a re-entry signal to go long again, and I looked at Rob and he

to bet on the breakout. But that’s what I’m trying to mitigate with the new strategies I’m working on; those periods of low volatility and false breakouts.

“forward tested” in that field).

is what will result in the future. Not always. but historically, these moves off these conditions have existed so often off these highs and lows that I’ll want to go with them. On top of that model, I bring in a timing tool. I don’t think a market will bottom the same way every time, so I have an arsenal of four or five ways to identify bottoming a