Manifold markets isn’t very good — EA Forum
Why prediction markets aren’t popular - Works in Progress
worksinprogress.coBut the catch was that this was never a sustainable long-term strategy, at least not for the purposes of promoting an open ecosystem. User-generated data is vulnerable to a family of sub optimizations such as Goodhart’s Law, in which using a “measure” as a “metric” devalues the measure itself. If you’re Google building PageRank on natural weblinks... See more