Low Interest Rates Don’t Drive Up Asset Prices – Governments Do

When looking at U.S. markets, I think there’s a little bit from both of those areas that can be helpful. During periods of fiscal dominance, the general trends are that 1) governments often try to restrict the flow of capital in subtle or overt ways, 2) asset prices are often not as nominally bearish as you might expect since the denominator is wea

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A country with well over 100% debt-to-GDP has two main choices in this scenario. The first choice is that they can keep interest rates very low despite periods of price inflation that occurs, and debase all of the currency holders and bond holders. Japan is far enough into fiscal dominance that they’ve chosen that route. The second choice is that t

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For example, if public debt is compounding higher at a 7-8% annual clip, then liquidity needs to keep pace to avoid financial crises. Think of it as the ‘cost’ of stability. This rate of monetary inflation represents a return hurdle for other assets because it measures the rate of debasement of paper money. Hence, investors need to figure which ass... See more