Life is Poker, Not Chess
robin-guo.com
Life is Poker, Not Chess
In fact, decisions are rarely 100 percent right or wrong. Life isn’t like that. Life is like poker, a game of incomplete information – since you never know what cards the other players are holding – and luck. Our decision-making is like poker players’ bets. We bet on future outcomes based on what we believe is most likely to occur.
blinkist.com • Thinking in Bets Overview
Chess, for all its strategic complexity, isn’t a great model for decision-making in life, where most of our decisions involve hidden information and a much greater influence of luck. This creates a challenge that doesn’t exist in chess: identifying the relative contributions of the decisions we make versus luck in how things turn out.
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
All of this is to say that you can’t predict what might work in advance: often, the only information you can trust when doing something new is what you learn when you poke at reality.
On some level it makes sense that entrepreneurs think effectually. When you can’t know what happens next, or what shapes your idea will take, you will, quite... See more
On some level it makes sense that entrepreneurs think effectually. When you can’t know what happens next, or what shapes your idea will take, you will, quite... See more