Théo, the French trader who placed a total bet of ~$30M on Trump winning the election on Polymarket will end up making ~$48M in profit. He ended up commissioning his own polls to measure the "neighbor effect", and believed the results were mind blowing in the favor of Trump, which gave him the conviction to make the... See more

n the days leading up to the US election, pollsters had the race deadlocked. The vote was essentially a coin flip.

But over on the betting platform Polymarket, the odds were much more solidly in former President Donald Trump’s favor. On Monday, Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris 58% to 42% — a lead that, by Wednesday morning, proved to be a... See more

As researchers in political science and as economists, we see three enticing advantages of forecasts from prediction markets, compared with poll-based forecasts of election outcomes: 1) Markets have full coverage of outcomes. They covered all primaries and caucuses in 2016, when polls covered about 50 percent of possible contests. Similarly, for... See more