Is the Dollar Doomed?
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Is the Dollar Doomed?
Nowhere did he question the position of the dollar, and by default US policy makers appears to accept that it could decline further. Given that many rival economies set their monetary policies to maintain parity with the US dollar, Fed easing and a weaker US exchange rate will likely spur easing across international markets.
This dollar downtrend has been a bit different than other recent ones, because normally a strong dollar puts pressure on asset prices while a weak dollar helps support them, and this weak dollar period (which is relative; it’s still strong on a longer-term chart and on a purchasing power parity basis) has occurred alongside a sell-off in U.S. equit
... See moreWhen commodities are weak, the US Dollar is strong as producer economies underperform. They then set interest rates lower, and lose capital to the US safe haven. US Dollar based borrowing in these countries will sometimes precipitate a crisis at the same time as a strengthening US Dollar makes it harder to repay loans.
Under the current global monetary system that came into effect in 1971, the dollar has had three major cycles of weakness and strength, and each one of these cycles of strength has caused a global short squeeze, leading to financial crises, and impeding growth until resolved. Nations that have the least foreign-exchange reserves and/or the most lia
... See moreThe U.S. housing and banking system was the epicenter of the global financial crisis in 2008, and the Fed used a few rounds of quantitative easing (i.e. expanding the monetary base to buy U.S. government debt and other securities) in the aftermath, which kept its currency relatively weak due to plentiful supply.
When the United States finished its t
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