Investors Are Behaving as if the Future Has Already Happened

Rivian is just starting to sell its electric vehicles, projecting $0-$1 million in revenue during the 3rd quarter. By comparison, both GM and Ford had over $130 billion in revenue in the last year.

But why is that relevant? Isn’t investing about about the future, not the past? Sure it is, but that future cash flow stream is unknown and Rivian investors today are behaving as if it’s money in the bank, as if the future’s already happened.

What we do know is that investors are paying a multiple on sales that we have never before seen for a company of its size. Rivian may very well be “the next Tesla,” but that’s far from a certainty: a lot can happen in the coming years to derail or delay that trajectory.