Inflation Replicator

"dominating the present with insights."

In investing, higher volatility usually equates to higher possible returns. In today’s world of online expression, we settle for lower expected value, market-level outcomes so as to not ruffle any feathers and not take any outsized risk. We’re basically hoping to allow people to know us enough so that they include us in their passive index of human... See more

Say you are a pension fund that needs an 8% return to meet its liabilities without difficulty. And say that stocks have been inflated to the point that you can in all honesty expect only a 2% return over the long run from here given reasonable assumptions about valuation metrics returning to something sensible at some point. You might be tempted to

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Say you are a pension fund that needs an 8% return to meet its liabilities without difficulty. And say that stocks have been inflated to the point that you can in all honesty expect only a 2% return over the long run from here given reasonable assumptions about valuation metrics returning to something sensible at some point. You might be tempted to

... See more

I like to look at the data, in order to assess where it looks where we might be going. Then I look at the performance of the market, to see where investors think we are going. I then determine if I think there may be an opportunity in all of this. As with a stock, investors all should try to understand what is priced into any investment. That is my

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Inflation, Interest Rates, The War in Ukraine & Commodity Prices, Labor Markets and The Great Repricing

The same can be said of markets. Understanding how big a market really is can be difficult. But the act of attempted futurism can have a clarifying effect on your perspective.