How to Think About the Deficit, the National Debt, and Interest Rates
A country with well over 100% debt-to-GDP has two main choices in this scenario. The first choice is that they can keep interest rates very low despite periods of price inflation that occurs, and debase all of the currency holders and bond holders. Japan is far enough into fiscal dominance that they’ve chosen that route. The second choice is that
... See moreLyn Alden • September 2024 Newsletter: Why Nothing Stops This Fiscal Train
While many focus on our rising interest costs to service our rising debt amounts I dont much care. We pay our interest to our citizens. Our existing debt service costs are mostly just a small symptom of the theft. The big thing to worry about is our primary deficit. That has grown far faster than our interest cost. Each year our primary deficit
... See moreAndy Constan on Trump Tariffs
Putting Them Together
The United States is running larger fiscal deficits than most other countries, and its private sector has a higher proportion of long term fixed rate debt than most other countries. This means that in an interest rate hiking cycle, the United States has been rather de-sensitized to rising rates compared to other countries
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