You’re probably much worse at market projection than you think. Engaging in intellectual masturbation where you believe you can pick and choose winners creates negative reinforcement as you don’t take action and have fewer opportunities to generate brand network effects.

Firms like a16z and Paradigm are already embracing a wider-net approach. YC is... See more

Investing in competing portfolio companies sends the signal that choosing winners ex ante is impossible and that the investor prioritizes backing the strongest operators regardless of overlap. A new startup is incentivized to also seek investment to be among their underdog peers looking to unseat the existing dominant player.

FTX’s actions were illegal and inexcusable. But unlike most other venture firms, they employed a strategic, differentiated approach that leveraged their brand to deploy capital at scale. While they adopted some tactics from other firms, their implementation was a distinct point on the capital-strategy frontier and continues to influence venture... See more

Social capital is an increasingly liquid and compounding asset. Each company you invest in is a call option with unlimited financial and social upside.

Similarly, every blog post or tweet is a call option that could change the trajectory of your life. This may not be my best post, but lesson 5 suggests I should share it anyway.