How to Future

The sense-making phase is about moving from noise to insight.

Simple scenarios function in much the same way – they provide a narrative in which different trends and forces can unfold, move, interact and illustrate their relevance, as well as providing a space where tensions can surface usefully.

A future map contains many stories and subplots, so this is the time to begin teasing out the patterns and threads – what we’ll call themes – that become more apparent as we move from scanning to mapping, and to look at possible combinations of trends and the longer-term, deeper drivers from the map that will transmit the key ideas, connections and

People need a motivating vision of what comes next and the awareness that more will happen after that, that the future is a process not a destination. The future is a verb, not a noun. Our minds may reach the ends of their tethers, but we’ll never stop futuring. BRUCE STERLING1

Figure 1.1 details The details of the different levels are as below: Anticipate: Prediction, early warning, quantification, identification of risk and opportunity. The question is, ‘What can we expect from X in the next five years’? Envision: Exploring how current trends and new possibilities might shape what comes next. The question is, ‘What migh

The intent of How to Future is to provide a way of looking at prospective problems, questions or challenges that, over time, becomes ingrained as a useful method for considering what could be. Futuring isn’t a once a year or a few times per quarter event; it’s an always-on way of thinking about what’s next, with a dimension of nimbleness and fluidi

Most people don’t want to read hundreds of pages of analysis. A well-crafted narrative that builds in the most salient takeaways in story form can be an effective way of communicating complex futures simply.

Doing this enough, with enough variation, will allow you to merge these acquired skills into your overall posture, in the face of the present, to be more aware and open to signals, and attain your own ‘scenaric stance’. In the words of futurist and co-founder of the Global Business Network, Jay Ogilvy, the scenaric stance is a state of constructive

While our goal is to improve confidence in facing uncertain futures by providing tools and instilling clarity of vision, if we are to advance future-making efficacy it’s critical to recognize these perceived inequities and limitations on agency.