Power is in the richness of the conversations and considerations of those engaged together in a future exploration, not inherent in the tools or methods themselves.

For our purposes, we look at scenarios as a means of depicting a ‘slice’ or portion of a future. To be useful, scenarios should be plausible in the sense of not being so exotic that they’re unthinkable or alienate the audience to the point of rejection (note that ‘unimaginable for the organization’s current mission’ shouldn’t be a criterion for rej

The important accomplishment here is that by first placing and considering the relationships among drivers and trends, then deepening the roadmap by playing out some impacts or implications, you have arrived at a map of multiple possible futures around an issue or topic question that can now be delved into more deeply through further detailed narra

Due to a steady increase in climate-driven disruption – intense storm seasons and flooding of densely populated coastal areas in Asia, drought-intensified conflict in the Mediterranean, Maghreb and southern Africa, and fires in South America – hundreds of thousands of people are left homeless and unable to remain in place. In 2026 alone, upwards of

Figure 1.1 details The details of the different levels are as below: Anticipate: Prediction, early warning, quantification, identification of risk and opportunity. The question is, ‘What can we expect from X in the next five years’? Envision: Exploring how current trends and new possibilities might shape what comes next. The question is, ‘What migh

Mapping in this context is a kind of graphing. In most cases, it can be useful to begin mapping with time and certainty as your two starter criteria. This

Leadership must enable a culture that supports the freedom to think and plan in non-linear ways, and views uncertainty as a material to build with, not as a risk to be mitigated. A successful future-facing culture is built, in large part, through familiarity and comfort with the means, as well as the objectives, of futuring.

Sensing is the initial phase, where information, data, signals and observations are collected and sorted, as a one-off exercise or as ongoing activity, to build up an inventory of relevant and illuminating inputs from which futures may be constructed.

Official futures are attractive because they are easy, default foundations on which to build narratives, and they provide comfort and certainty instead of opening up questions about the forces that may shape possible futures and exploring other ways of working, living, communicating and so on.