How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

Because of the way the human mind works, we tend to view decisions as permanent and final, particularly if they are high impact. We don’t think much in advance about the option to quit. But once you look at decisions through the frame of quit-to-itiveness, you’ll find that for many decisions you thought (or simply assumed) you couldn’t unwind, the

Why is it so important to have a high-quality decision process? Because there are only two things that determine how your life turns out: luck and the quality of your decisions. You have control over only one of those two things.

being “quitty” allows you to make better choices about when to be gritty.

In addition to making precise (bull’s-eye) estimates, offer a range around that estimate to express your uncertainty. Do this by including a lower and upper bound that communicate the size of your target.

Your perspective isn’t so good when you are at the center of it.

Ulysses contracts can involve three types of advance commitments: Like Ulysses, you can physically prevent yourself from making poor decisions. You can raise barriers, making it harder to execute on actions that will defeat your goals. When you raise barriers, you’re not physically preventing yourself from acting, like when you tether yourself to a

You’re not going to remember what you knew at the time of the decision. That makes it hard for you to judge whether a decision was good or bad. To assess the quality of a decision and learn from your experience, you need to evaluate your state of mind honestly and recall what was knowable or not knowable as accurately as possible.

That’s how Dr. Evil makes you fail. He gets you to make small, poor choices that hide in the shadows, keeping you from seeing how repeatedly making those decisions guarantees failure. You see each instance as unique and justifiable and don’t see how they fit into a larger scheme.

Re-creating a simplified version of a decision tree puts the actual outcome in its proper context.