For any single decision, there are different ways the future could unfold—some better, some worse. When you make a decision, the decision makes certain paths possible (even if you don’t know where they lead) and others impossible. The decision you make determines which set of outcomes are possible and how likely each of those outcomes is. But it

When the outcome turns out poorly, it’s easy to focus on the details that suggest the decision process was poor. We think we are seeing the decision quality rationally because the bad process is obvious. But once the outcome is flipped, we discount or reinterpret the information about the decision quality because the outcome drives us to write a

SIX STEPS TO BETTER DECISION-MAKING Step 1—Identify the reasonable set of possible outcomes. Step 2—Identify your preference using the payoff for each outcome—to what degree do you like or dislike each outcome, given your values? Step 3—Estimate the likelihood of each outcome unfolding. Step 4—Assess the relative likelihood of outcomes you like and

being “quitty” allows you to make better choices about when to be gritty.

A base rate gives you a place to start when you are trying to estimate the likelihood of any outcome (or the upside and downside potential).

Re-creating a simplified version of a decision tree puts the actual outcome in its proper context.

You can identify low-impact decisions with the Happiness Test, asking yourself if how your decision turns out will likely have an effect on your happiness in a week, a month, or a year. If the type of thing you are deciding about passes the Happiness Test, you can go fast. If a decision passes the Happiness Test and the options repeat, you can go

Ulysses contracts can involve three types of advance commitments: Like Ulysses, you can physically prevent yourself from making poor decisions. You can raise barriers, making it harder to execute on actions that will defeat your goals. When you raise barriers, you’re not physically preventing yourself from acting, like when you tether yourself to a

Two people might share the goal of providing for their families. For one person, that could mean financial security. For another, it could mean time spent together as a family. That difference in values would lead them to different career preferences. The first person would prefer a job that pays more and has more opportunities for advancement,