Having faith in the Kelly Criterion for angel investing
Fewer Losers, or More Winners?
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In the idealized model, the portfolio manager has an accurate probability distribution on the future performance of each asset in the universe of potential investments. Kelly’s methodology then provides a quantitative specification of how big a position to take in each of the candidate assets. Not surprisingly, the fraction of one’s portfolio to be
... See moreAllen C. Benello • Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World's Greatest Concentrated Value Investors
You might then ask how LTCM would have been any better off with the Kelly system. The answer is that the Kelly criterion can be more forgiving of human error than many other systems—including highly leveraged approaches such as LTCM’s. Recall the example of simultaneous bets on a large number of coins, each with a 55 percent chance of coming up hea
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