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The Diff | Byrne Hobart | Substack
But the companies have two headwinds.
The $2T required here is more than 5x the annual subscription market, meaning they are going to need for a lot of people to pay for this. A lot of people don’t want to pay.
The hardware depreciates in two to three years. Unlike the fiber laid during the dot-com boom, none of this will mature into durable
kyla scanlon • AI Is the Market, and the Market Is the Government
In a sense, one could argue that Bitcoin, and perhaps to an even greater extent Ethereum, Solana, and their peers, are essentially "SaaS" solutions. You pay a fee to the network to execute code; the protocol is the software, and the gas fee is the subscription. While that is admittedly stretching the definition, especially given the massive... See more
Andreas Steno Larsen • Tweet
On that template, AI looks like it has already finished the first act. The outer ring has cracked: neoclouds, “AI infra” smaller caps, and nuclear or power-adjacent trades are down 50% or more from their highs. That’s your paper-railway phase. The core of the story, Nvidia and a handful of megacaps, is still treated as the “safe” way to own AI, but
... See more