
Saved by sari
The Diff | Byrne Hobart | Substack

Saved by sari
But the companies have two headwinds.
The $2T required here is more than 5x the annual subscription market, meaning they are going to need for a lot of people to pay for this. A lot of people don’t want to pay.
The hardware depreciates in two to three years. Unlike the fiber laid during the dot-com boom, none of this will mature into durable
On that template, AI looks like it has already finished the first act. The outer ring has cracked: neoclouds, “AI infra” smaller caps, and nuclear or power-adjacent trades are down 50% or more from their highs. That’s your paper-railway phase. The core of the story, Nvidia and a handful of megacaps, is still treated as the “safe” way to own AI, but
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