In 1978, futurist Roy Amara offered a simple reflection that later became known as Amara’s Law: We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.

The insight is about more than technology—it’s about how humans misjudge progress. We anchor on what’s visible. We think linearly. We expect

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Compounding Exponential Growth

via How People Think

• Evolution’s superpower is not just selecting favorable traits. That part is so tedious, and if it’s all you focus on you’ll be skeptical and confused. Most species’ change in any millennia is so trivial it’s unnoticeable.

• The real magic of evolution is that it’s been selecting traits for 3.8 billion

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