Growth Happens Gradually, Then Suddenly—Here’s Why
Change takes time and it usually happens fitfully — nothing, slowly, nothing, slowly, nothing, nothing, and then boom: Change. If there was an emoji formula for change, it would be: Δ =….💧..💧..💧.💧💧💧..💦 ..🌊
John Borthwick • Building bicycles for our minds
In 1978, futurist Roy Amara offered a simple reflection that later became known as Amara’s Law: We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
The insight is about more than technology—it’s about how humans misjudge progress. We anchor on what’s visible. We think linearly. We expect
... See moreCompounding Exponential Growth
via How People Think
Evolution’s superpower is not just selecting favorable traits. That part is so tedious, and if it’s all you focus on you’ll be skeptical and confused. Most species’ change in any millennia is so trivial it’s unnoticeable.
The real magic of evolution is that it’s been selecting traits for 3.8 billion