For Paid Subscribers (December 2023)

It’s getting ever harder to distinguish humans from bots, not just because bots are becoming more humanlike, but also because humans are becoming more botlike.

As knowledge of human psychology evolves, algorithms become better at shaping human behavior.

A more pessimistic prediction is that the current True Fan revolution will eventually go the way of the original Web 2.0 revolution, with creators increasingly ground in the gears of monetization. The Substack of today makes it easy for a writer to charge fans for a newsletter. The Substack of tomorrow might move toward a flat-fee subscription mode... See more

There are secular tailwinds too: automation is driving a shift towards more empathetic, creative work; trust is shifting to individuals versus institutions; and users are more familiar with subscription business models and increasingly willing to pay directly (rather than through their attention on ads) for unique access and expertise.