Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto Book 1)

This is the major conflict with economic theory, as according to economists, someone with $1 million in the bank would be more satisfied than if he had half a million. But we saw John reaching $1 million having had a total of $10 million; he was happier when he only had half a million (starting at nothing) than where we left him in Chapter 1.

But he has most of the attributes of the bad trader. And, at any point in time, the richest traders are often the worst traders.

No, he does not want to have to face the solemn university library where he was bored to tears. “I am shooting for longevity,” he is wont to say.

The reader can see my unusual notion of alternative accounting: $10 million earned through Russian roulette does not have the same value as $10 million earned through the diligent and artful practice of dentistry. They are the same, can buy the same goods, except that one’s dependence on randomness is greater than the other.

I recently read a bestseller called The Millionaire Next Door, an extremely misleading (but almost enjoyable) book by two “experts,” in which the authors try to infer some attributes that are common to rich people.

Heroes are heroes because they are heroic in behavior, not because they won or lost. Patrocles does not strike us as a hero because of his accomplishments (he was rapidly killed) but because he preferred to die than see Achilles sulking into inaction.

Rare events are always unexpected, otherwise they would not occur.

When you look at the past, the past will always be deterministic, since only one single observation took place.

Now that we have found that hero among monkeys, would any reader invest his life’s savings on a bet that the monkey would write the Odyssey next?