Speaking of Peloton, let’s not forget that they’ve spent hundreds of millions of dollars on production studios, music licenses, and instructor talent to create a premium experience. So, when they heavily discount their app, making it free for 90-days, it’s hard to imagine fitness-seekers won’t defect from their local studios.

In a crowded software market, hardware can be your moat. The most successful of these companies is Peloton. If you buy a bike (or presumably a Tread), to just get your hardware to turn on, you have to pay Peloton $39 a month for a subscription. And while your parents’ generation ended up using exercise equipment mainly as a clothes horse, these new... See more