In the simplest terms, deliberative decisions involve three steps, designed specifically to overcome the unique challenges of a hard choice: we build an accurate, full-spectrum map of all the variables, and the potential paths available to us; we make predictions about where all those different paths might lead us, given the variables at play; we r

confirmation bias and overconfidence just like the rest of us. Our brains naturally project outcomes that conform to the way we think the world works. To avoid those pitfalls, you need to trick your mind into entertaining alternative narratives, plot lines that might undermine your assumptions, not confirm them.

With the bin Laden decision, at almost every stage of the process—from the first surveillance of the compound to the final planning of the raid itself—analysts were specifically asked to rate their level of confidence in the assessment they were presenting.

Scenario planning is a narrative art, first and foremost. It homes in on the uncertainties that inevitably haunt a complex decision and forces the participants to imagine multiple versions of how that uncertain future might actually play out.

“One thing a person cannot do, no matter how rigorous his analysis or heroic his imagination,” the Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling once observed, “is to draw up a list of things that would never occur to him.”

In Tetlock’s analysis, the foxes—attuned to a wide range of potential sources, willing to admit uncertainty, not devoted to an overarching theory—turned out to be significantly better at predicting future events than the more single-minded experts. The foxes were full spectrum; the hedgehogs were narrowband.

you can’t draw up a list of things that will never occur to you. But you can play your way into that kind of list.

But Sommers found that the mere presence of non-whites in the jury room made the white jurors more contemplative and open to other possible interpretations. Just the idea that there were diverse perspectives in the room helped the group build more accurate maps.

where one of the candidates or executives is asked how he or she goes about making a decision, but in the end, there may be no more valuable skill for someone in any kind of leadership position.