Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most

What began as an explicit search for contradictory evidence—evidence that might undermine the interpretation around which the group was slowly coalescing—turned out, in the end, to generate evidence that made that interpretation even stronger.

Part of the art of mapping a complex decision is creating a full-spectrum portrait of all the variables that might influence your choice. But part of that mapping process is also coming up with new choices.

What Nutt’s research made clear was how important it is to deliberately carve out a phase of the decision process within which entirely new alternatives are explored, to resist the easy gravitational pull toward the initial framing of the decision, particularly if it happens to take the form of a “whether or not” single alternative.

But they would have also been able to improve their decision-making process simply by inviting feedback from random people who had no connection to Vancouver—as long as the backgrounds and expertise of those newcomers differed significantly from the original decision-makers at the water authority itself. Just the presence of difference appears to m

But the emphasis on successful prophecies misses the point. Most scenarios end up failing to predict future outcomes, but the very act of trying to imagine alternatives to the conventional view helps you perceive your options more clearly.

To me, the parable of the basement fire teaches us how important it is to be aware of our blind spots, to recognize the elements of a situation that we don’t understand.

They’d learn the importance of sharing hidden profiles among diverse groups, and the value of measuring uncertainty. They’d learn to seek out undiscovered options and to avoid the tendency to fall back into narrowband assessments. They’d learn the importance of being other-minded, and how reading great literature can help enhance that

If you find yourself mapping a “whether or not” question, you’re almost always better off turning it into a “which one” question that gives you more available paths.

Amazon’s Jeff Bezos famously adheres to a “70 percent rule” in making decisions that involve uncertainty: instead of waiting for total confidence in a choice—a confidence that may never arrive, given the nature of bounded rationality—Bezos pulls the trigger on decisions once he has reduced his uncertainty level to 30 percent.