updated 1d ago
Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most
By defining expertise, the scientists had subtly altered the group dynamics of the decision: instead of looking for the common ground of shared knowledge, the participants were empowered to share their unique perspective on the choice.
from Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most by Steven Johnson
Bryan Sivak added 2mo ago
Borrowing from Donald Rumsfeld, you can think of them as knowable unknowns, inaccessible unknowns, and unknowable unknowns.
from Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most by Steven Johnson
Bryan Sivak added 2mo ago
But they would have also been able to improve their decision-making process simply by inviting feedback from random people who had no connection to Vancouver—as long as the backgrounds and expertise of those newcomers differed significantly from the original decision-makers at the water authority itself. Just the presence of difference appears to m
... See morefrom Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most by Steven Johnson
Bryan Sivak added 2mo ago
In Tetlock’s analysis, the foxes—attuned to a wide range of potential sources, willing to admit uncertainty, not devoted to an overarching theory—turned out to be significantly better at predicting future events than the more single-minded experts. The foxes were full spectrum; the hedgehogs were narrowband.
from Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most by Steven Johnson
Bryan Sivak added 2mo ago
Challenging assumptions, seeking out contradictory evidence, ranking certainty levels—all these strategies serve the divergent stage of the decision process well, helping to expand the map, propose new explanations, and introduce new variables.
from Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most by Steven Johnson
Bryan Sivak added 2mo ago
What began as an explicit search for contradictory evidence—evidence that might undermine the interpretation around which the group was slowly coalescing—turned out, in the end, to generate evidence that made that interpretation even stronger.
from Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most by Steven Johnson
Bryan Sivak added 2mo ago
Part of the art of mapping a complex decision is creating a full-spectrum portrait of all the variables that might influence your choice. But part of that mapping process is also coming up with new choices.
from Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most by Steven Johnson
Bryan Sivak added 2mo ago
Scenario planning is a narrative art, first and foremost. It homes in on the uncertainties that inevitably haunt a complex decision and forces the participants to imagine multiple versions of how that uncertain future might actually play out.
from Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most by Steven Johnson
Bryan Sivak added 2mo ago
confirmation bias and overconfidence just like the rest of us. Our brains naturally project outcomes that conform to the way we think the world works. To avoid those pitfalls, you need to trick your mind into entertaining alternative narratives, plot lines that might undermine your assumptions, not confirm them.
from Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most by Steven Johnson
Bryan Sivak added 2mo ago