OpenAI had a significant lead from summer 2022 through spring 2024 when Google and Anthropic caught up to GPT-4. 7ish quarters of dominance as a result of being the first to aggressively bet on the traditional scaling “law” for pre-training. Being first to reasoning with o1 only led to a few months of... See more

OpenAI is now the clear leader in LLM APIs - a position that 4 years ago Google was arguably in the default position to win. The failure of Google to capitalize on its many advantages specifically in AI has been striking. It feels like a Xerox Parc moment of inventing transformers, having all the talent, data, and distribution to build the seminal... See more