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Dangerous Feelings
Past performance increases confidence more than ability.
Morgan Housel • Some Things I Think
Related: Few traits are as destructive as an appetite for praise.
Morgan Housel • Some Things I Think
The line between “inspiringly bold” and “foolishly reckless” can be a millimeter thick and only visible with hindsight. Risk and luck are doppelgangers.
Morgan Housel • The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness
Success is the wolf in sheep’s clothing. It drives a wedge between appearance and reality. When we succeed, we believe everything went according to plan. We ignore the warning signs and the necessity for change. With each success, we grow more confident and up the ante. But just because you’re on a hot streak doesn’t mean you’ll beat the house.
Ozan Varol • Think Like a Rocket Scientist: Simple Strategies You Can Use to Make Giant Leaps in Work and Life
the other hand, isn’t it possible that this experience can lead to overconfidence? Failing to admit you’re wrong? Anchoring to previous outcomes?
Morgan Housel • The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness
Are you trying to be right or to make money?
Brendan Moynihan • What I Learned Losing A Million Dollars
The fact is confidence operates on a thin line. Possess too little and you will never take enough risk. Possess too much and you will inevitably take imprudent risks. This is why, as with most things in life, having the right balance is critical.