Crypto Market Structure 3.0

Capital is flowing into crypto. Over $20B in crypto funds have been raised since the start of 2021 per Dove Metrics. Dry powder is abundant, but liquidity is asymmetrically distributed. Most capital is focused on early-stage, private projects. That’s not sustainable. While retail investors have been able to consume the float of historical crypto ve... See more

With these market conditions come implicit assumptions around the future state of crypto. For builders and investors to meet expectations over the next 5-10 years, how much market cap creation will we need to see? How much institutional capital will need to enter the space to support these assets? Where might institutions allocate? How can both bui... See more

ecause if you think about, if you unpack what does Web3 mean? And if it really boils down to the financialization of everything, there's three distinct buckets of it in my mind. There's a speculative sphere because you can now tokenize so many different things, the opportunity for markets and best execution and price discovery and all these things ... See more

As is well-known in the crypto ecosystem, the economic interest in crypto comes in waves — we have already gone through two waves of this and are in the middle of a third one. However, all through this, the ecosystem has been maturing quietly and resolutely underneath all the hype and noise. As a result, the crypto opportunity has significantly exp... See more

1) #1 We’re in the middle of the fourth ‘price-innovation’ cycle

By the end of 2028 we haven’t quite recaptured the all-time highs of crypto market capitalization, but the relevance of this all-encompassing statistic has diminished. There’s now comfortably $20+ trillion of crypto assets, but more importantly the technology has penetrated so many verticals – albeit to varying degrees – that we no longer speak in ... See more

By 2027 crypto has reached over 2 billion users and surpassed $30 trillion in total market value. While I’d prefer to continue postulating on new use-cases and emerging behaviors this technology enables, the goal of this exercise has always been to project the most likely outcome given the priors. The excitement and novelty of new developments thro... See more

3.我认为这很有可能是加密货币的最后一个周期。因为上一个周期比特币从大约 1200 到 20 000，大约增长了 20 倍，而这个周期从 20 000 到 60 000，增长了 3 倍。增长的幅度要比上一个周期小得多。我认为加密货币未来很可能会像纳斯达克一样交易。但从周期来看，它最终可能变成与其他风险资产一样的交易模式。