Consumption Is Real
Businesses are dropping ad spend fast. April @tryramp spend data showed 54% froze or cut budgets with retail leading at 61%. A similar pullback is reflected in TV ads, as w/ Meta and Google too (conflicting w/ reporting to date). The trend is clear: folks are bracing for impact https://t.co/38CSK967Ib
That kind of spending is what our current economic model is based on: Americans of all class levels buying things and always wanting to buy more, regardless of their actual means. But when a society-throttling, economy-decimating pandemic comes along, what happens when that ability — and, just importantly, that desire — goes away? In April, retail... See more
Anne Helen Petersen • I Don't Feel Like Buying Stuff Anymore
Globally, during this cycle:
-China has had strong industrial production, but weak consumer spending.
-Europe has been relatively weak both in industrial production and consumer spending.
-The United States has been strong in consumer spending, but relatively weak in industrial production.
Lyn Alden • July 2024 Newsletter: Rates Insensitivity in the Downcycle
In FY 2010-11 the share of consumer credit in total bank credit was only 19%. By FY2023-24 this increased to around 33%. Nearly half of this credit is unsecured or quasi-secured (secured against weak collateral), which makes it riskier. In the post-pandemic period, much of the growth in bank credit has in fact been driven by growth in consumer
... See moreIdeas For India • The Silent Reshaping of India’s Credit Landscape
Real disposable income recovered and kept rising after the pandemic shock, returning to trend. But sentiment never came back. It slid into a recession-like range (and below) and stayed there, even as economic fundamentals stabilized.