Confronting Impossible Futures
With technology racing forward at an ever increasing pace, some advancements can impact us on an unprecedented scale. As shapers of the future, we must strive to understand the consequences and implications of emerging technology. We do this by asking ourselves uncomfortable questions about possible outcomes.
IDEO • To Design a Better Future, Embrace the Uncomfortable
Laura Pike Seeley added
These bedazzled methods fall under the category that Futurist Ilkka Tuomi labels as Epistemic Uncertainty , and the argument goes something like this:
However, as Tuomi astutely... See more
“I’m unsure about the answer to this problem, but I can solve it by gathering more data. Once I gather more data related to the problem, I will be able to devise a solution.”
However, as Tuomi astutely... See more
The Future Thinker’s Dilemma
A technologically advanced culture cannot flourish without getting better at anticipating the future. That’s why science fiction matters. That’s why scenario planning matters. That’s why complex software simulations that enable us to forecast things like climate change on the scale of decades matter.
And here I want to bring us back to another idea... See more
And here I want to bring us back to another idea... See more
Steven Johnson • Ways of Flourishing
to be helpful futuring, your imagination should be disciplined.
Ideally your imagined future would have a history. Whatever happens has to happen one-step at a time. So for every new technology or cultural innovation there needs to be versions that are economically viable one step at a time.
the game for the futurist is to try and imagine what led to... See more
Ideally your imagined future would have a history. Whatever happens has to happen one-step at a time. So for every new technology or cultural innovation there needs to be versions that are economically viable one step at a time.
the game for the futurist is to try and imagine what led to... See more
Kevin Kelly • How to Future
Keely Adler added
Fifth is the usual problem facing decision makers: you have no idea what the future world will be like. You can plan for contingencies but many will be practically unimaginable to you.
Eigenrobot • You Are Going to Fuck This Up
Stuart Evans added
The strong version of Goodhart's law underlies most of my personal fears around AI (expect a future blog post about my AI fears!). If there is one thing AI will enable, it is greater efficiency, on almost all tasks, over a very short time period. We are going to need to simultaneously deal with massive numbers of diverse unwanted side effects,
... See moreJascha Sohl-Dickstein • Too Much Efficiency Makes Everything Worse: Overfitting and the Strong Version of Goodhart's Law
