Compounding Crazy

So how do you prepare?

This is demonstrably true, using DPUs or actual numbers, but according to Urban, there are three reasons we can’t grok the impact of exponential progress:

First, there are the timing risks.

But what’s wild is that that’s what the current $300 billion in venture funding is investing into -- things funded today might not be public for another decade. The $2 trillion in hypothetical 2031 funding, which would need to return $4.25 trillion per year, would feed into the following decade. By 2041, at the same CAGR, the world’s public equitie... See more

When it comes to history, we think in straight lines. It’s really hard to grasp how much crazier the future is going to get, because most people extrapolate based on the past growth rate, and even the more optimistic and adventurous ones will extrapolate from the present growth rate.

For one, the faster a new company is built, the faster other companies can benefit from it. New primitives create new opportunities for innovation. Kind of obvious.Less explored is the fact that if a new company needs fewer employees, because it can outsource whole functions to APIs and software, there are more talented employees freed up to go sta... See more

Open-mindedness will be important. You should continue playing the Great Online Game. Reading sci-fi will make the crazy seem more familiar (I just finished Project Hail Mary and it’s excellent). There will be abundant opportunities for people who are down to get a little crazy.

Get yourself thusly oriented, jump in, and enjoy. The future is going to be crazier than you can imagine. 

Things could totally fall apart. But if history is a guide, we’ll wake up a decade from now to a market full of much higher numbers than we can reasonably wrap our minds around today. Some of the new market cap will come from today’s public companies, some will come from today’s private unicorns, some will come from existing startups that aren’t ye... See more