Compounding Crazy

Building blocks let more new companies build faster and leaner.

If the Fed jacks up interest rates, growth assets could tank short-term. Ham-fisted crypto regulation is a legitimate concern. Markets never go straight up. Even though global equities and the Nasdaq have compounded at a roughly 10.5% CAGR and ended up and to the right, there were a lot of bumps along the way. Please don’t mortgage your house and Y... See more

The Law of Accelerating Returns states that the rate of change of progress accelerates because humans can use the technology at their disposal to progress faster than previous generations could without the technology.

Open-mindedness will be important. You should continue playing the Great Online Game. Reading sci-fi will make the crazy seem more familiar (I just finished Project Hail Mary and it’s excellent). There will be abundant opportunities for people who are down to get a little crazy.

So how do you prepare?

Get yourself thusly oriented, jump in, and enjoy. The future is going to be crazier than you can imagine. 

This is demonstrably true, using DPUs or actual numbers, but according to Urban, there are three reasons we can’t grok the impact of exponential progress:

Then, there are macro and tail risks.

These being tail risks, there are countless definitionally unimaginable things that might happen. Perhaps the next global crisis won’t be such a boon for innovation. Unknown unknowns abound.