First order effects of inventions are easy to predict but secondary, tertiary, and n+1 effects are very hard. That’s almost laughable to say about a sector like AI where new research / startups / demos / regulations / firings / resignations / fundings are happening at light speed. Like literally there’s something mind-blowing that happens every... See more

The Exponential Growth of Computation Revisited

My bet is the next five years won’t feel as dramatic as the last three. We’ll absorb today’s breakthroughs, settle into plateaus, and then leap forward in sudden step-changes. New technology feels like magic, but we get calibrated to it in a week or two; it’s like we forget the revelation and it just becomes the base case. In ten years, much of

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