🎯 Value MLB Plays Card

Bet

Type

Suggested Line / Odds*

Why It’s Value

Risk / Confidence

Junior Caminero to record an RBI

Player Prop

~ +115 / +120 FanDuel

Caminero has been hot recently, especially vs right-handers. Berríos (his opponent) gives up decent power and RBIs to RHBs. Swings with profit potential. FanDuel

Medium — RBIs depend on lineup position, runners on base, game flow. Not totally in his control.

Jakob Marsee to record an RBI

Player Prop

+120 FanDuel

Marsee in a favorable spot (hitting vs Freeland in Coors). High-scoring environment. Good matchup. FanDuel

Medium-high risk — home runs or long hits uncertain, and weather / pitcher pulls matter.

Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 strikeouts

Player Prop

−114 FanDuel

Gilbert’s strikeout metrics (K‐rate, recent starts) are very strong. Even vs a team with low Ks, his recent history supports this. FanDuel

Medium — Royals (if they’re the opponent) tend to make more contact so may limit Ks. Also depends on how many innings he goes.

Cade Horton Over 4.5 strikeouts

Player Prop

+105 Covers.com

Horton’s K/9 has been rising; Pirates have among the higher strikeout rates vs RHPs. Covers.com

+1

Medium risk — young starter, possible fatigue, possible early hook if trouble.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

Player Composite Prop

−110 Covers.com

Good matchup vs a starter prone to giving up a lot to left-handed hitters. Chisholm hitting well lately. Covers.com

Medium — multi‐stat props require several events; if one doesn’t happen (e.g. no RBI), bet might lose.

Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 Runs vs Angels

Team Total

−130 (approx) https://www.fantasyalarm.com

Angels’ young pitcher is struggling, and Brewers are strong offensively especially in home matchups. Brewers’ BABIP recently high, momentum. https://www.fantasyalarm.com

Medium‐High — Angels may limit damage, could be a low-scoring game in first few innings which drags down value.

Freddy Peralta Over 8.5 Strikeouts

Player Prop

+105 (approx) https://www.fantasyalarm.com

Peralta’s been strong recently: strikeouts pile up, Angels strike out a lot. Good matchup. https://www.fantasyalarm.com

Medium — over/unders on strikeouts sensitive to on‐field performance, weather, bullpen usage.

Home Run Prop: Junior Caminero 1+ HR

Home Run Prop

+289 or so DraftKings Network

High power metrics, favorable matchup vs pitcher who gives up a lot of homers, and home environment helps. DraftKings Network

Risky — HR props are high variance. One swing makes or breaks.

Home Run Prop: Trevor Story 1+ HR

Home Run Prop

+450 Picks and Parlays

Springs has been vulnerable to right-handed pull power, and Fenway helps for that. Story has the power and favorable splits. Picks and Parlays

Risky — for the same reasons: needs the right pitch, enough at‐bats, ballpark wind conditions etc.

*Odds are approximate at time of publishing; sportsbooks may have shifted them.

🔍 Confidence Tiers

Higher Confidence / Lower Risk : Caminero RBI, Gilbert Over 5.5 Ks, Horton Over 4.5 Ks

Medium Confidence : Brewers team total, Jazz Chisholm composite prop, Peralta strikeouts

Speculative / Higher Risk : Home run props (Caminero HR, Story HR), Marsee RBI (less proven), composite props that require multiple events

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