Black Swan author's rules for living - Boing Boing
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Black Swan author's rules for living - Boing Boing
In The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former hedge fund manager, describes the perils of Uncertainty. No matter how stable or predictable things seem, unpredictable “black swan events” can change everything in an instant. The term “black swan” was a common expression in sixteenth-century London for something that was impossible or didn’t exis
... See moreThe black swan is Nassim Taleb’s best-known idea, and the subject of his book of the same name. As Taleb points out, this simple little error of reasoning trips up experts every day, especially in the realm of finance. No-one can predict the inherently unpredictable. All the prior data might produce a lovely trendline that can be extrapolated out f
... See moreFrom the standpoint of the turkey, the nonfeeding of the one thousand and first day is a Black Swan. For the butcher, it is not, since its occurrence is not unexpected. So you can see here that the Black Swan is a sucker’s problem. In other words, it occurs relative to your expectation. You realize that you can eliminate a Black Swan by science (if
... See morehis book The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb defines a black swan as an event of low probability, extreme impact, and only retrospective predictability.