Bitcoin and Its Emerging Market Structure

Every asset ALWAYS functions in the context of macro constraints. Bitcoin has many people buying and selling it from many countries. Regardless of what popular narratives say, every single person has their Bitcoin cross-collateralized with something else. If a person is running a portfolio with leverage and begin to have a drawdown, they typically

So every single asset is directly linked with the incomes of consumers in the economy. At the end of the day, if someone truly needs cash to pay rent or buy food, they will sell their Bitcoin (or any asset they hold). When you have mass adoption of the asset, this is what happens.

Anytime I approach an asset, it always starts by asking what the drivers are. If you don’t know WHY an asset is moving, then you are functionally just using momentum as a signal for action. The limitation of using momentum is that there are ALWAYS pieces of information in a time series that are not inherently reflected in the price.

One of my main goals in markets is to identify HOW the rules of the game are changing BEFORE everyone else realizes it.

• Economy: We know that the amount of money relative to output (total goods and services) is reflected in inflation. This is ALWAYS a relative relationship. There are no true price controls in any system, only a transfer of risk reflected in capital flows.

• Financial markets: We know that in modern financial markets with central banks and fractiona