Saved by Keely Adler
Betting on Unknown Unknowns
These being tail risks, there are countless definitionally unimaginable things that might happen. Perhaps the next global crisis won’t be such a boon for innovation. Unknown unknowns abound.
notboring.co • Compounding Crazy
Alex Wittenberg added
“The best new ideas always have unanticipated benefits. So it’s stupid to require people who want to do new things to enumerate the benefits beforehand. The best you can do is choose smart people and then trust their intuitions about what’s worth exploring.”
Attention Required! | Cloudflare
Kyle Steinike added
Even if we can’t foresee the unforeseeable, it’s possible to project a future reality where the most logical conclusions have no relationship to what actually happens.
Chuck Klosterman • But What If We're Wrong?: Thinking About the Present As If It Were the Past
I believe we are fundamentally ignorant and very, very bad at predicting the future. [4]
Tim Ferriss • The Almanack of Naval Ravikant: A Guide to Wealth and Happiness
We know now that the future is inherently unpredictable because not all variables can be known and even the smallest error imaginable in our data very quickly throws off our predictions. The best we can do is estimate the future by generating realistic, useful probabilities.
Rhiannon Beaubien • The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts
So it's both scary and exciting that the greatest things that any of us might accomplish are not something that we can imagine or something that we could accomplish through just a linear progression. So I'd love to describe what you think this means for how people should behave, especially ambitious people that want to achieve great things or affec... See more
Patrick O'Shaughnessy • Greatness Without Goals
sari added
These bedazzled methods fall under the category that Futurist Ilkka Tuomi labels as Epistemic Uncertainty , and the argument goes something like this:
However, as Tuomi astutely... See more
“I’m unsure about the answer to this problem, but I can solve it by gathering more data. Once I gather more data related to the problem, I will be able to devise a solution.”
However, as Tuomi astutely... See more