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Our research suggests that travelers in western markets place a value on their work-related travel miles close to their hourly wage, and value their non-work-related travel miles at close to half their hourly wage. In low income countries and at $0.50 per mile, we assume another long tail of demand priced similarly to today’s ride-hail options. Tak... See more

Cars and the FutureA little over a year ago I explained in Cars and the Future that there were three changes happening in the personal transportation industry simultaneously:Drivetrains were changing from the internal combustion engine to electricCar operation was moving from human-based to computer-based (i.e. self-driving cars)Ownership was shift... See more

Beyond the prospect of fewer cars per capita, there could also be a significant threat to luxury automotive brands. If you don’t own the car and will use it for only a single trip, you have little reason to care what make or model it is. Cars could cease to be status items, and the automobile market might well become commoditized. For these reasons

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The combination of new technology and new business models is providing an ever-expanding range of transport options. Collectively, ride hailing, micromobility, and on-demand car rental offer new approaches to transport that provide the convenience of a private car without the need to own one, for a growing fraction of journeys. Dediu calls this “un

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We need to decide, for example, when we talk about autonomous cars: whose autonomy are we talking about? What are the broader implications of gaining freedom while losing control? Evolving from a society of private automobile ownership to privatized fleets of self-driving cars will give us back time, won’t it? Or will it? And yes , it will mean lif... See more

Since 2017, Tesla’s capital expenditure per incremental unit of capacity has improved from ~$84,000, when the Model 3 was ramping, to ~$7,700. While these improvements indicate that Tesla could continue to increase margins, the more important takeaway is that capital no longer is a bottleneck limiting its growth. Instead, Tesla should be able to gr... See more