America’s Most Important Economic Storyteller Is Confused

Will we update our scripts and stories about how the world actually works? Or is this a conversation that people just don’t want to have? Is it easier to pretend that everyone can make it?

I don’t have good answers to these questions, but I sense the disconnect between what people believe at a societal level and the market finding reality of an econ

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But people don't experience the economy through employment numbers or percentage point shifts in GDP. And when they are asked by pollsters about the state of the economy, they aren't reflecting on government statistics; they aren't even necessarily thinking about the present. Instead, what they’re doing is more like taking an inventory of economic ... See more

“Yeah, so, true story, one of our colleagues pulled me aside today, I’m not naming names, and he said, ‘I just can’t believe what’s happening to our industry, can you?’ And I’m trying to be patient with these people, I really am, but I had to ask him, which part is surprising to you? Let’s break this down. What is it you can’t believe, exactly? Tha

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Advanced economies have no divine right to grow at Great Moderation rates: Japan’s, which grew at 5 percent annually during the 1980s, has grown by barely one percent per year since then.43 This may be one reason why forecasters and policy makers were taken so much by surprise by the depth of the 2007 recession. Not only were they failing to accoun

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Peter Zeihan, geopolitical strategist and one of my favorite thinkers, has recently raised the point that the underpinnings of the economy have broken apart. Indeed, what happens when our measurements of the economy (inflation) are no longer accurate, and our tools for controlling the economy (interest rates) no longer work?

When measurements chang

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It’s election season, so the viral charts are flying around fast and furious, as each side tries to support an economic narrative that will help their candidate win. In these trying, troubled, turbulent times, you’re basically on your own as an intelligent consumer of news. You can’t trust any single source — even me! — to be a complete unbiased ex... See more