So the next time you encounter economic data, pay close attention to exactly what is being measured. Because we’re currently in the ‘choose-your-own adventure’ phase of our ‘silent’ recession: you can choose to reckon with the reality that a majority of Americans are struggling economically or you can cling to the truth that billionaires and

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Analysts have been trying to forecast or spot a recession in the United States for years, looking for the classic disinflationary recession. And maybe we’ll still get one in the year ahead. But fiscal dominance is a different environment than the past four decades in the United States, and in many ways the United States already went through an

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The "Old Economy" (The Bust): Reality: Outside of AI, traditional cyclical industries are contracting. Investment in industrial equipment, residential housing, and non-residential construction is falling. The Divergence: If you strip out the AI spend, the "real" business cycle looks like a recession. High interest rates are successfully crushing

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