Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions

but there’s a certain flexibility in the 37% Rule: it can be applied to either the number of applicants or the time over which one is searching.

Surprisingly, not giving up—ever—also makes an appearance in the optimal stopping literature. It might not seem like it from the wide range of problems we have discussed, but there are sequential decision-making problems for which there is no optimal stopping rule.

A 63% failure rate, when following the best possible strategy, is a sobering fact. Even when we act optimally in the secretary problem, we will still fail most of the time—that is, we won’t end up with the single best applicant in the pool. This is bad news for those of us who would frame romance as a search for “the one.” But here’s the silver lin

The chance of ending up with the single best applicant in this full-information version of the secretary problem comes to 58%—still far from a guarantee, but considerably better than the 37% success rate offered by the 37% Rule in the no-information game.

a million, believe it or not, your chance is still 37%. Thus the bigger the applicant pool gets, the more valuable knowing the optimal algorithm becomes. It’s true that you’re unlikely to find the needle the majority of the time, but optimal stopping is your best defense against the haystack, no matter how large.

Most people acted in a way that was consistent with the Look-Then-Leap Rule, but they leapt sooner than they should have more than four-fifths of the time.

even a very good applicant in the hopes of finding someone still better than that—but as your options dwindle, you should be prepared to hire anyone who’s simply better than average. It’s a familiar, if not exactly inspiring, message: in the face of slim pickings, lower your standards. It also makes clear the converse: with more fish in the sea, ra

The term connection has a wide variety of meanings. It can refer to a physical or logical path between two entities, it can refer to the flow over the path, it can inferentially refer to an action associated with the setting up of a path, or it can refer to an association between two or more entities, with or without regard to any path between them

decision of whether to stop comes down entirely to how many applicants we have left to see. Full information means that we don’t need to look before we leap. We can instead use the Threshold Rule, where we immediately accept an applicant if she is above a certain percentile. We don’t need to look at an initial group of candidates to set this thresh