AI’s $600B Question

I’m often asked what problem I’d solve if I were to start another company. I probably won’t do a startup any time soon (because startups are hard), but here are some of the problems I find interesting. If you’re solving any of them, I’d love to chat.

1. Data synthesis: AI has become really good both at generating and annotating data. The challenge n... See more

The incentive to find breakthrough science that provides a performance pathway other than scaling is increasing. A GPT-6 class model will cost $10 billion and three years to improve on GPT-5 by some uncertain degree. That’s a ton of time and a lot of cash for an uncertain payout: in other words, a substantial prize for anyone who can figure out pro... See more

The bottleneck is on the supply side. We did not anticipate the extent to which end user demand would outstrip GPU supply. The bottleneck to many companies’ growth quickly became not customer demand but access to the latest GPUs from Nvidia. Long wait times became the norm, and a simple business model emerged: pay a subscription fee to skip the li

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mine for Nvidia. In mid-2024, J.P. Morgan published survey results from 166 chief information officers, who are responsible for $123 billion in annual enterprise tech spending. The report revealed that CIOs plan to increase their AI compute hardware spending by more than 40 percent annually over the next three years, going from 5 percent of total I

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