Why would it not be countercyclical now? The main factor is the disruption of the in-person student experience, as the idea of an online-first college will lose much of its former appeal as a "bundled" set of services
Because most of the professional alternatives for individuals disappear in a recession, universities tend to see higher enrollment during economic crises (it's been long observed as a counter-cyclical economic phenomenon) however, this time around the recession is the result of a public health crisis that may affect higher education enrollment grea... See more
The main takeaway from this, based on conversations with school teachers, university professors and students, is that we still don't know what aspects of the education experience belong online and which should still be done in person.
Let's stop the narrative that online learning has been amazing, and face the reality that students are hating their virtual experience. Per the Niche survey (US):