Models according to a (Mediaeval) Graphic Designer

Models according to a (Mediaeval) Graphic Designer

Models according to a (Mediaeval) Graphic Designer

Models according to a (Mediaeval) Graphic Designer

Models according to a (Mediaeval) Graphic Designer

Models according to a (Mediaeval) Graphic Designer

Models according to a (Mediaeval) Graphic Designer

Models according to a (Mediaeval) Graphic Designer

Models according to a (Mediaeval) Graphic Designer

Models according to a (Mediaeval) Graphic Designer

Models according to a (Mediaeval) Graphic Designer

Models according to a (Mediaeval) Graphic Designer

Real thing

From the start, you introduced IAMs with diagrams that explained how different components of a model fit together. Energy demand, agriculture, and population growth were shown as different coloured boxes, linked together with lines and arrows. We quickly understood how a model is a representation of real world “things” in visual form.

World

Real thing

Real thing

Perhaps one main difference between

IAM and mediaeval graphic design is that those ancient designers explicitly incorporated values and ethics into their visual representations

of the world.

Models according to a Filmmaker

Models according to a Filmmaker

Models according to a Filmmaker

Models according to a Filmmaker

Models according to a Filmmaker

Models according to a Filmmaker

Models according to a Filmmaker

Models according to a Filmmaker

We should have lots of different models with perhaps different purposes so that we can then as humans, as scientists, try to understand a given issue.

— An Integrated Assessment Modeller

All of a sudden, a static model storyline becomes a dynamic motion picture of how society moves towards our climate goals in 2050. That sounds like a movie we’d love to watch.

We wonder what IAMs might look like if you stepped onto the red carpet and made your directorial debut.

Models according to a Storyteller

Models according to a Storyteller

Models according to a Storyteller

Models according to a Storyteller

Models according to a Storyteller

Models according to a Storyteller

Models according to a Storyteller

Models according to a Storyteller

After a while of dealing with these scenarios and their implications, [we often] approach it from an ‘It's all just numbers’ perspective. You get disconnected from what it means. This is also a coping strategy.

— An Integrated Assessment Modeller

Models according to a Translator

Models according to a Translator

Models according to a Translator

Models according to a Translator

Models according to a Translator

Models according to a Translator

Models according to a Translator

Models according to a Translator

Models according to a Translator

society

policy

tech

feasibility

sweet

spot

policy

relevance

societal

acceptability

Any graphic designer will tell you that a lot of thought goes into the choice of colours and forms. When we arrange things, we make choices about what goes where and why. In this sense, graphic design is a form of thinking. We dug into the history of graphic representation and found some interesting considerations for how a model may embed certain ways of thinking through its schematic nature.

Some of the earliest schematic graphics are so-called Tree Diagrams. Before Darwin and Linnaeus used them for scientific purposes, these diagrams were used in the Middle Ages as tools to spread truth claims and help make decisions (sound familiar to your own work?). Some of these diagrams, referred to as ‘Legal Trees’ (arbor interdictorum), were used to outline legal matters such as jurisdiction, servitude, and commercial law. Others called ‘Trees of Virtue’ (arbor virtutum) were illustrative in disseminating Christian values such as prudence, justice, and temperance. With mediaeval tree diagrams, graphic design facilitated specific ways of thinking and acting.

A matching pair of a tree of vices and a tree of virtues, from a manuscript of Speculum Virginum (Walters Art Museum Ms. W.72, foll. 25v & 26r, dated ca. 1200)

Some may see mediaeval tree diagrams as a far cry from IAMs, but upon closer inspection they aren’t so different. Ben Schneiderman, the inventor of the widely used ‘file folder’ interface in computer software, took his inspiration from the branching structure of trees. He went beyond the visual metaphor of a tree to create a nested diagram of folders, but the hierarchical structure of tree diagrams remains. Models make extensive use of sub-modules filled with file folders that order data and code — one could say that an IAM is a giant forest of tree diagrams, an ecosystem of hierarchically organised information.

If mediaeval tree diagrams are the graphic ancestors of IAMs, then one could say that considerations of values, ethics and norms are built into the DNA of contemporary models. “Fine, we use file folders and therefore tree diagrams,” you might say, “but we stay far away from normative decisions — that’s not our job!” Don’t models help us to understand that the climate can (and should) be managed? And don’t your scenarios already assume certain decisions, for example by avoiding high levels of nuclear energy?

What might it look like if modern modellers acted more like their ancient counterparts? For starters, your conferences and symposia might provide more space for scientists to discuss their own ethics and values, and how this might inform modelling practice. Scientists don’t necessarily have to be deemed as activists in order to share their opinions on the state of the world. From such conversations, new ideas might arise concerning how to communicate your results, what new partnerships to forge, or how best to incorporate alternatives into modelling practice.

Each IAM projection is framed through a specific storyline, a set of assumptions. For example, a storyline that assumes high economic growth would require equations in the model to be tuned differently than a storyline of low growth, and consequently each model run would arrive at a different outcome. We initially imagined these storylines as actual stories, with characters and narrative tension drawn out over time, and were surprised to hear that modelling storylines are more like a setting — a frozen moment that describes society as it might look in the year 2100. If we’re trying to inspire politicians and the general public to take action on climate change, it might help for modelling storylines to be more dynamic and exciting.

We’ve been told that presenting a dynamic storyline could be a bit daunting for modellers, since it asks you to explain how society might achieve our desired future scenarios, and that’s a decision for policymakers. Don’t worry, you can also talk about transitions by simply sharing snapshots of your current model. Filmmakers show us that frozen moments are the building blocks of dynamic stories, as shown in the storyboarding process. A storyboard is a series of panels in which each separate scene of a film is illustrated and placed in sequence. If a filmmaker were given one of your model projections, they might cut it into smaller segments and stick them on a storyboard, creating shorter time frames and giving the impression of change over time.

You might ask: “What does chopping up a climate model projection actually accomplish?” The first answer is that humans already make decisions about the climate — albeit on a shorter time frame — by using the weather forecast. Weather reports are useful because they look at the near future, and within that short timeframe it's easier for us to make decisions. By slicing a model into shorter timeframes, we could create a middle ground between the 14-day weather forecast and a 28-year model projection so that people can start to imagine what transformative changes in the next few years could look and feel like.

The second answer has to do with the incommensurability of short-term politics and the long-term task at hand. If political terms are 3-4 years and policy horizons are 8-10 years, how can we expect politicians to act using IAMs that reference the year 2050 or even 2100? Sliced up model projections could bring the climate emergency closer in time. A shorter-term model projection, for example one that is aligned with 2030 or 2050 climate targets, might help in encouraging politicians to act on the urgency that lies within their political term and beyond.

A Future Manual for Future Models