This Will Make You a Better Decision Maker | Annie Duke

Chess, for all its strategic complexity, isn’t a great model for decision-making in life, where most of our decisions involve hidden information and a much greater influence of luck. This creates a challenge that doesn’t exist in chess: identifying the relative contributions of the decisions we make versus luck in how things turn out.

Summary.   

From “I like to be efficient” to “I trust my gut” to “I can make a rational decision,” there are a number of deeply ingrained — and counterproductive — myths we tell ourselves about how we make decisions. Underlying these myths are three common and popular ideas that don’t serve us well: First, as busy people, we d

What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of “I’m not sure.”