One of my favorite frameworks for thinking through startup creation comes from Sequoia’s Alfred Lin. During the rise of mobile ~15 years ago, Lin did an exercise: break apart features of the iPhone, then predict which companies each feature could enable. The example Lin points to: the GPS allowed couriers to drive around with Google Maps,... See more

“Today’s AIs are book smart. Everything they know they learned from available language, images and videos. To evolve further, they have to get street smart. That requires world models.”

For 2026, the prediction is a new major player in the picks-and-shovels for prediction markets. If prediction markets are the new trillion-dollar asset class, what infrastructure needs to be built? Who will build the Bloomberg of prediction markets?