DS: Here’s my simple framework for judging ideas:

Potential: If it worked, how big could it be?

Probability: What are the chances it’ll work?

Proximity: How close is this to things I care about, know about, or am passionate about?

The weights will be different based on your situation. For example, early in my career, “probability” was important. I hadn't had any successes yet, so the first one had a lot of value. Today, I solve mostly for #1 and #3. What has great potential that I’m passionate about? (Even if I fail, I’ll have no regrets, because I cared enough about it).